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| and Mail 有關台灣政局的專題報導。提到台海在2成人遊戲008所面對的緊張局面。這篇報導，從2008台灣的的兩成人遊戲種大選，北京的奧運，入聯公投，一千顆飛彈等等描述目前成人遊戲及2008將遇到台海兩岸的緊張對峙。這篇BBC的新成人遊戲聞評論可以很明顯看出國際對台灣的局勢最怕的是北京以台灣成人遊戲選，北京的奧運，入聯公投，一千顆飛彈等等描述目前及2008將遇到台海兩岸的緊張對峙。這篇BBC的新聞評論可以很明顯看出國際對台灣的局勢最怕的是北京以台灣為藉口來發動一個概括整個亞洲的戰爭。這下牽動的不只是獨立，統一的問題，而是東方西方霸權的衛冕爭奪戰。 這篇報導一點也沒有提到台灣內部藍綠激烈對立的問題，更沒有提到藍營一向的蠻橫，可見從國 際的觀點來看，藍綠的問題仍然是Domestic Issue。綠色執政後，沒有將藍色消除，這點是很大的執政過失。畢竟即使藍色消除後，紅色還等著在後面呢！ 太懶了，所以沒翻譯成漢字。就請格友們自賞吧！ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20071224.SLEEPER24/TPStory/TPInternational/Asia/ SLEEPER STORIES: TENSIONS IN ASIA How a miscalculation could spell mayhem in Taiwan It would only take a small incident to spark global crisis, experts say. Will 2008 be the breaking point for China and its rebellious island? GEOFFREY YORK gyork@globeandmail.com December 24, 2007 BEIJING -- About the series As 2007 draws to a close, Globe and Mail correspondents around the world examine international issues that are set to make news in 2008. Today's story is the first of five. It's a highly volatile mixture of ingredients: a fast-rising superpower, a rebellious island, an arms race, duelling missiles, claims of independence, and a spate of high-profile political events that could trigger a reckless reaction. Taiwan, the feisty democracy that is fighting desperately for world recognition, is emerging as one of the most dangerous flashpoints for conflict in 2008. Outside of the Middle East, it remains the likeliest place where the United States could find itself embroiled in a new war. China and Taiwan have been preparing for war for years, building up their arsenals of missiles, fighter jets, naval ships and other weapons. China has close to 1,000 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwanese targets and the number is constantly rising. Taiwan has its own missiles ready to hit China, including its recently developed Brave Wind cruise missile, capable of striking Shanghai and other Chinese targets. The rhetoric on both sides has been ferocious. China's military often threatens to use force to prevent Taiwanese independence. Beijing has passed legislation to authorize violence against Taiwan if necessary. Taiwan's pro-independence President, Chen Shui-bian, has infuriated Beijing with his frequent talk of sovereignty. Tensions have been high for years, but 2008 could be the most dangerous year of all. It is filled with potential trigger points, including two Taiwanese elections, a controversial referendum, the final days of Mr. Chen's presidency and the Summer Olympics. This explosive combination of political events will begin on Jan. 12 with a legislative election in Taiwan, followed by a presidential election on March 22. The elections will be accompanied by Mr. Chen's latest gambit: a referendum on whether Taiwan should apply for membership in the United Nations under the name Taiwan rather than its official name, the Republic of China. Beijing is enraged by the referendum because it implies another step toward Taiwan's formal independence. China has recruited Washington to urge Taipei to cancel the referendum, yet Mr. Chen has vowed to push ahead with it, partly because it would help to galvanize his supporters and draw them to the ballot box. For Beijing, the nightmare scenario is a victory by Mr. Chen's candidate in the presidential election and a victory for Mr. Chen in the referendum. "Beijing's reaction will be the million-dollar question," said Chao Chien-min, an expert on cross-strait relations at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. "The Taiwanese government has been warned over and over of the dangers, yet it chooses not to respond," he said. "They will do anything to win the election. Beijing is worried that the situation will get out of hand." Beijing's nemesis, Mr. Chen, must step down when his term expires in 2008. But he will remain in office for two months after the presidential election. And if he is energized by victories by his pro-independence party in the presidential vote and the referendum, he could seize the opportunity to take a bigger leap toward independence, perhaps on the assumption that China will not dare to launch a war in the final months before the Beijing Olympics. (China, meanwhile, has warned that it is willing to take military action against Taiwan in 2008 even if it means sacrificing the Olympics.) "I think there is a real danger of miscalculation on both sides," Mr. Chao said. "Both sides don't really understand the true feelings of the other. There's a huge gap of misunderstanding. The people of Taiwan don't really sense the danger of the referendum because we're so accustomed to the name Taiwan. And China, for its part, doesn't realize that the referendum is only domestic politics with little to do with sovereignty." Any escalation of the conflict between China and Taiwan, even if provoked by a miscalculation, would trigger a chain of international responses, sending shockwaves around the world. The Communist regime in Beijing would feel obliged to respond with military action, since it fears a loss of face and an erosion of its legitimacy if it allows Taiwan to move toward independence without a fight. Washington would then be dragged into the conflict, almost certainly obliged to defend its Taiwanese allies against Chinese attack, although it has tried to maintain "strategic ambiguity" by avoiding any clear promise of support to Taiwan in the event of war. Susan Shirk, a former official in the U.S. State Department, has recorded in detail how a small incident in Taiwan could quickly escalate into a global crisis. In a book published this year, Ms. Shirk outlines one of the most likely scenarios that could lead to disaster. The crisis would begin with an accidental collision between a Taiwanese jet and a Chinese jet in the Taiwan Strait. The news is quickly flashed around the Chinese Internet, and the pressure of public opinion compels China's leaders to respond aggressively. China's army is mobilized and Chinese students march in the streets, demanding military action against Taiwan. In this scenario, Ms. Shirk says, Washington would feel compelled to deploy its own forces to respond to the Chinese action, since the U.S. military forces in Asia would lose credibility if they fail to respond to Chinese bullying. "Crisis escalation has a life of its own," she warns in her book. "War can result even if no one wants it to happen. ... Wars are caused by misperceptions, one country interpreting the behaviour of another in the most threatening terms, as much as by actual conflicts of interest." The rise of the Chinese Internet and the populist Chinese media, with their power to mobilize the Chinese people in nationalist directions, are key reasons for the growing instability in the balance between Beijing and Taipei. While the Chinese military is rapidly growing more powerful, China's ability to control its own population is declining. "The confluence of these two trends increases the danger of war," Ms. Shirk says. The tale of Taiwan's leader Chen Shui-bian, a native-born Taiwanese and the island's first president from the Democratic Progressive Party, is a charismatic public speaker from a poor rural background. Seen as a steely fighter with a populist touch, he insists he is a "peacemaker, not a trouble maker" and says he has no plans to declare independence except in the event of a Chinese invasion. But his often prickly approach toward Beijing, and his party's traditional pro-independence stand, have caused some to worry about Taiwan's longer-term stability and prosperity. China remains deeply suspicious of him, accusing him of planning constitutional changes that would destroy its hopes of eventual reunification. Chen Shui-bian's life is a tale of tenacity in the face of adversity. Born to illiterate tenant farmers in a village in southern Taiwan in 1951, education became his ticket out of poverty. He was the best student in his county and earned himself a place at the prestigious Taiwan National University. As an ambitious young lawyer, he joined a maritime legal firm and married Wu Shu-chen, the daughter of a wealthy doctor. Mr. Chen fell into politics in the early 1980s when he defended a group of pro-independence leaders after a protest in the port of Kaohsiung. He lost the case, but was won over by his clients' ideals. Much of Mr. Chen's appeal to voters lies in his personal dynamism and his down-to-earth background. Many refer to him by his nickname, A-bian. But in 2006, after a string of allegations against his family and advisers, he was seriously weakened when prosecutors arrested his son-in-law on insider trading charges and then, in November, when his wife faced charges of corruption and forgery. Prosecutors said the president himself would also have faced charges if it were not for his presidential immunity, leading to immediate calls for him to resign. Source: BBC |
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